Polls that make me smile

This whole having a real job and not just being a student thing has me totally exhausted so I am just going to post two polls that made me happy this week.

From Angus Reid:

Only 29% of Canadians approve of the
recent agreement between the Liberal and Green parties

Two-in-five (44%) perceive deal as a sign of weakness

If Canadians could vote in Central Nova, Peter MacKay would get 35%; May second with 22%

Majority of Canadians (52%) reject Liberal / NDP / Green merger

I really don't hate to say I told you so.

And the Decima poll that Harper's psychic really should have predicted was coming before the Conservatives spent so much money on their fancy new digs (I mean what do we pay that woman for- it can't simply be for picking out Harper's 'try to look like a human' turtlenecks and ensuring that he always gets the same 7-year-old-boy haircut):

Cons 30
Libs 29
NDP 18
Green 11
Bloc 8

I have said it before, and it bears repeating, that one should not pay too much attention to just one poll. But the trends are interesting. Especially the trend that shows that the Greens peaked months ago. I like that one.

Vous allez voir!

In the realm of crazy exciting news, Thomas Mulcair, former Quebec Environment Minister, has decided to run for the NDP. He is quite easily the biggest star candidate that the NDP has had in Quebec. Ever.

He was greeted today on Parliament Hill by excited NDP MPs and staffers- about 80 people total- and this is what he had to say:

"Dear friends, dear future colleagues, thank you so much for your warm welcome.

On Mont-Royal this morning, it was 20 degrees, snow was melting, people were out en masse, and I was able to tell reporters that change was in the air!"

I'm planning to take Jack on a tour of Quebec. Because there is a wellspring of support for our values. Vous allez voir!"

Mulcair has so much credibility that his decision to run for the NDP could likely start a chain reaction of other high-profile progressive Quebec candidates looking to run under the NDP banner. This would make the NDP a real contender in Quebec, creating some very interesting four-way races in the next election.

Here is the NDP press release in its entirety:

APRIL 20, 2007

THOMAS MULCAIR TO RUN FOR NDP

MONTREAL – Today, NDP Leader Jack Layton welcomed Thomas Mulcair to the ranks of the NDP. Mulcair, former Environment Minister for the government of Quebec, intends to seek NDP nomination for the upcoming federal election.

“Support for the NDP tripled in Quebec during the last federal election and Quebeckers’ support for our ideas and our values is constantly growing said Layton. “The fact that Thomas Mulcair has joined our team reinforces this momentum and we are optimistic that other candidates of his caliber will join us."

A lawyer by profession and Liberal member of the Quebec Legislature for Chomedey from 1994 to 2007, Mulcair is a committed environmentalist who brings with him incredible experience. As Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development in Quebec, he worked on behalf of Quebeckers, defending the Kyoto Protocol and promoting a progressive environmental policy. He was never afraid to confront his federal counterpart, Stephane Dion, on the important issues. Mulcair was ousted from Charest’s cabinet due to his stance on environmental protection, particularly with regard to the Mont Orford file.

Since the Liberal Party has still not learned from its errors under the weak leadership of Stephane Dion; since Stephen Harper’s Conservatives remain light-years away from real life in Quebec; and since the usefulness of the Bloc Quebecois has become questionable, Mulcair’s arrival will help the NDP position themselves advantageously in Quebec.

“It’s a privilege for us to see that Thomas Mulcair has decided to pursue his commitment to public life by choosing to represent the interests of Quebeckers under the NDP banner,” concluded Layton. “We welcome him wholeheartedly.”

-30-

The Green Party is imploding

Strangely enough, not everyone in the Green Party is happy with Elizabeth May's deal with Dion.

Here are some great quotes from disgruntled Greens:

Why should Jack Layton show Ms. May and ourselves courtesy when she has done nothing but insult him since becoming leader. She comes from a conservative mind set and has done nothing in her leadership to build the kind of cooperation she now claims to be trying. She has been a liberal sympathizer for many months with little consideration for the NDP. She has continued to praise the liberal record through her misguided support of Dion, a record that pales in comparison to the NDP record which is mind boggling considering they had the power and the NDP does not. Stephane Dion does not believe in electoral reform nor parliamentary reform. Like Stephen Harper he will ignore any and all reform that threatens the dictatorial power of the PMO.

You guys are living in a delusion spun by both Ms. May and Mr. Dion that may yet prove fatal for the Greens. Stephane Dion will cast aside any cooperation with the Greens or the environment issues if he gets a majority government.
-Stephen LaFrenie, Nominated Green Candidate for Trinity-Spadina

And this one:

...the agreement to not run candidates strikes me more as backroom deal-making than cooperation - and it is being portrayed in that manner by Mr. Layton. The Green Party only has one chance to be seen by Canadians as a party that does politics differently. One of the costs to be paid for this deal is that it will put a question mark in the minds of some voters as to whether that premise is true.
-Kevin Colton, Green Blogger

These are just the ones that I could find easily. There are likely many more.

Something we've known all along...

...is that the Bloc has screwed the NDP out of making a real breakthrough in Quebec for years now.

Here is some proof from SES:

[Bloc voters only] If the Bloc Quebecois did not exist federally and you had to choose between the federal [rotate] Liberals, Conservatives, NDP or Green Party, which federal party would you vote for? Values in parenthesis represent the change in support if the BQ did not exist.

Canada without Bloc (N=910, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 39% (+3)
Liberal 34% (+1)
NDP 19% (+3)
Green Party 8% (+2)
None 1% (0)

Quebec without Bloc (N=230, MoE ± 6.5%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 41% (+13)
Liberal 21% (+3)
NDP 23% (+10)
Green Party 12% (+8)
None 4% (0)

Read Nik Nanos' take on it here. Kinda stating the obvious but still very interesting.

What is strange to me is all of the closet-Conservative Bloc voters. But I suspect that these are more anti-Liberal votes than pro-Conservative ones.

Elizabeth May for Liberal backbencher!

A few thoughts on the Dion-May alliance:

1) The whole thing seems pretty selfish. By backing Dion for PM, Elizabeth May is telling Canadians that they should vote Liberal- unless they live in Central Nova. She is sacrificing the legitimacy of the rest of her party for a chance to win her own seat.

Even if she does win her seat (doubtful considering results in Central Nova from the last two elections), with this move May has ensured that other Greens won't win, thereby dooming herself to be an independent MP with no resources, no time to speak in the House, and no committee role.

As Martha Hall Findlay, a Dion supporter, pointed out on Mike Duffy Live last week, if May thinks Dion is best suited to be PM, she should join the party and run for the Liberals. Maybe that is what May is setting herself up to do. I wouldn't be surprised if she has deluded aspirations of being the Liberal Environment Minister in a Dion-led government, leaving her Green Party more irrelevant than ever.

If I was a Green I would be livid over May's disregard for the other members of her party. I can only imagine how annoying it will be for Green candidates and supporters to see the Green leader's endorsement of their opponent's leader on the local Liberal literature.

And if I were a Liberal I would be pissed off about Dion's disregard for sound political strategy, showing once again how weak a leader he is, conceding a seat to a party that has never won anything at any level in Canada. Ever.

2) The "Big Red Machine" never needed help from another political party before; why is it that now, under Stephane Dion's leadership, they need to strike an electoral alliance with the Greens, a party that has no seats and no hope of winning any seats? The implications aren't great for Dion or for his supporters.

Quoted here is the advice that a Tory friend of mine gave a Liberal friend:

"Nevermind the attack ads, Stephane Dion is not only 'not a leader', he's just plain politically DOA. Stop flogging a dead horse and focus on trying to keep Dion from taking you down with him."

What is even more ridiculous than the deal itself is all of the Liberals scrambling to find ways to stay in their comfortable state of denial by telling themselves that what Dion has done was a smart move or 'the right thing to do.' The desperation and blind partisanship reminds me of the Greens who tried so hard to explain away Elizabeth May's anti-choice comments.

One of my personal faves is the Cherniak post where he tries some weak anti-NDP spin and ends up a little off-message speculating about a Liberal merger with the Greens in his comment section.

3) Over the course of the weekend, Elizabeth May has proven that she has a severely inflated sense of self-importance that borders on absurdity. Calling Jack Layton out on national television for not returning her phone calls? Who does this woman think she is anyways? No one has ever elected her to represent them in parliament. Canadians had a chance in the London North Centre by-election and they didn't take it.

Take a hint Elizabeth May- The NDP isn't interested in your electoral games or playing any part in your twisted episode of the Red Green Show. What else is there to talk about? The Greens don't have any seats in parliament right now so they can't help make parliament work. May herself has given much praise to the NDP for their green strategy over the years, so it appears that Layton doesn't need any help from her there. And I doubt that Layton really wants to hear about her new found admiration for Dion, a man who had the chance to reduce GHG emissions and instead saw them rise by more than 30% under his watch.

After May's media stunt this weekend, Layton's office has received her request for a meeting loud and clear. The NDP Leader receives thousands of requests for meetings. I am sure that Jack's people can fit her in somewhere between his meeting with the leader of the Christian Heritage Party and the leader of the Marijuana Party.

Don't panic Liberals, Dion has a plan

The Liberal Party may have what could be aptly described as an exodus on their hands (the newest high-profile caucus member to announce that she will not be seeking re-election being Belinda Stronach). But never fear Liberal supporters, Stéphane Dion has an excellent new strategy that he is sure will put the Liberals over the top in the next election.

4995 facebook friends, roughly 5 369 076 to go.

Pink jerseys?!

Congratulations to the Canadian Women's hockey team who just won another world championship tonight...but pink jerseys?! Apparently they are a throwback to the old days of 1990 when they actually wore pink. What was that all about? What does that say about how seriously we took our female athletes in the 1990's? Were they not good enough to wear the Canadian red and white like other Canadian athletes?

Anyways, they are auctioning off the pink jerseys worn by the women on ebay and the proceeds are going to the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation. Great that they are raising awareness about breast cancer and donating money but how come we never see men's teams doing this sort of thing? Imagine the media frenzy that would ensue if the Canadian men's team wore pink jerseys. I bet Sidney Crosby's pink jersey could get a hell of a lot of money.